At the end of the UQ workshop CATS will be hosting a reception and book launch of Professor Arthur Petersen's Simulating Nature: A Philosophical Study of Computer-Simulation Uncertainties and Their Role in Climate Science and Policy Advice| (2nd Edition). Professor Petersen is a Munich Re Programme Visiting Professor (CCCEP-CATS).

The reception will be held in the LSE Senior Dining Room and is open to all - please email Lyn Grove| if you wish to attend.

22-23 May 2012

CATS is holding a 2-day workshop on ‘Uncertainty Quantification, Risk and Decision-making’| here at LSE. Speakers include Nick Watkins (BAS), Jochen Broecker (Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems), Jim Baker (William J. Clinton Foundation), Ron Bates (Rolls Royce), Jordan Ko (DAE programme, Isaac Newton Institute), Bernard Sinclair-Desgagné (HEC Montreal), Massimo Marinacci (Bocconi University) and Henry Wynn (LSE).

17-18 May 2012

Leonard Smith is giving an invited talk entitled ‘Extreme Modelling, Extreme Theories, Extreme Statistics and the understanding of Rare, Unusual, or Extreme Events’ at the Aggregation, Inference and Rare Events in the Natural and Socio-Economic Sciences| research workshop at the University of Warwick.

Blue Gene project: A Climate Research Project, sponsored by Lloyd's of London and utilising the computational resources of the Hartree Centre to examine the ability of state of the art general circulation models to shadow the observations; starting with EC Earth (the models considered will vary with the permissions granted the Bluegene team.

End-to-End Quantification of Uncertainty for Impacts Prediction (EQUIP). Funded by NERC, EQUIP is a collaborative project involving eleven UK Universities and research institutions. Grant holder: Prof Leonard Smith. Start/end date: January 2010-December 2012.
Summary: EQUIP brings together the UK climate modelling, statistical modelling, and impacts communities to work closely together for the first time on developing risk-based prediction for decision making in the face of climate variability and change.

RAPID-RAPIT. A NERC funded collaborative project led by the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, that will attempt to quantify the likelihood of a shut down in the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in the North Atlantic. Grant ref: NE/G015392/1. Grant holder: David Stainforth.

See full list of CATS Research Grants |

Naomi Oreskes, David A. Stainforth and Leonard A. Smith "Adaptation to Global Warming: Do Climate Models Tell Us What We Need to Know?" Philosophy of Science, Vol. 77, No. 5 (December 2010), pp. 1012-1028

Nicola Ranger and Bob Ward published their CCCEP/Munich Re programme Industry Brief "Aiming for a 2°C goal: what does it mean for the insurance industry?"

L.A. Smith, M.C. Cuéllar, H. Du, K. Judd (2010) Exploiting dynamical coherence: A geometric approach to parameter estimation in nonlinear models, Physics Letters A, 374, 2618-2623

See full list of CATS Publications|

Munich Re Programme|

EQUIP

Managing Uncertainty in Complex Models (MUCM)