The aim of this research programme is to improve our understanding of the uncertainties in climate science and to help decision-makers manage these uncertainties.
More information
Our distinctive contribution, which leverages expertise at LSE and partner universities, is to link detailed physical and statistical analysis of climate science with insights from social sciences, including economics and philosophy.
Working in this area is challenging, but fascinating. Decision-makers quite understandably want concrete information on the implications of climate change for them, sometimes far into the future, and/or at the local level. However, it is currently very difficult for climate science to supply such information: the climate system is complex, intrinsically difficult to predict, and key elements of it remain poorly understood. Uncertainties in the ecological and human response to climate change are often just as great.
This tension frequently surfaces, from international discussions on an agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol, down to planning decisions on individual infrastructure projects, such as new roads and power plants. Some commentators promote the idea that uncertainty is a reason not to act on climate change, while others argue that it is precisely because of the uncertainties that we should act.
Through our research, we aim to help policy makers manage the risks and uncertainties of climate change. This includes the difficult question of whether to act now or delay investments in adaptation and mitigation.
Projects under this programme include:
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Philosophical and statistical investigations into the outputs of complex computer models of the global climate system;
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Economic analyses of optimal investment rules under uncertainty.
We take a co-evolutionary approach to the development of climate models, where scientific outputs and user demands develop in tandem.
Lead staff
Other contributors
Research assistants
Fabian Barthel|
Hailang Du|
Ana Lopez|
Falk Niehoerster|
Alessandro Tavoni|
Oliver Walker|
Contributing staff
Cameron Hepburn|
Associate staff
Based primarily in another LSE centre or department or working as a visitor.
Giles Atkinson|
Nancy Cartwright|
Roman Frigg|
Alec Morton|
Eric Neumayer|
Emma Soane|
Peter Sozou
Visiting staff
Celine Herweijer|
Arthur Petersen|
Michael Spackman|
Joerg Tremmel
|Students
Daniel Bruynooghe|
Jennifer Helgeson|
Alex Jarman|
Associate students
Roman Binter
Seamus Bradley|
Joe Daron|