The overall aims of the LTCF research cluster are to make projections of likely demand for long-term care for older people and associated expenditure to 2041 under different scenarios.
The scenarios relate to changes in external drivers of demand, such as demographic pressures, and to potential changes in patterns of care or policies. A specific objective is to assess the likely impact of different policies and approaches to funding long-term care for older people on the balance of expenditure between sectors.
Cluster lead: Raphael Wittenberg
Research team: Adelina Comas-Herrera, Derek King, Juliette Malley, Linda Pickard Contact: r.wittenberg@lse.ac.uk|
Current research projects
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How Can Private Long-term Care Insurance Supplement State Systems? The UK as a Case Study
Funded by the AXA Research Fund, this study will explore how private long-term care insurance could supplement state systems, with the UK as a case study.
The study also involves researchers from the University of East Anglia, the Nuffield Trust and the University of Barcelona.
This project aims to consider ways in which some of the challenges facing wider take-up of long-term care insurance in the UK could be addressed, including interaction with state funding; to present estimates of the expected life-time costs of care for older people in the UK, by gender and other characteristics under different patterns of care; to present estimates of possible premiums for different potential types of private or private/public insurance policies; to consider the affordability and attractiveness for different individuals of policies with varying levels of premiums and pay-outs, for a range of assumptions on how insurance would interact with state funding; and to prepare projections to 2032 of public and private social care expenditure under different potential insurance schemes.
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Long-term Care Projections Project
This project aims to produce projections of demand for long-term care for older people in England to 2041 and associated public and private expenditure under different assumptions about key factors affecting demand.
Further information (PDF)
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Modelling Needs and Resources of Older People to 2030
The purpose of this project is to project up to 2030 the numbers, family circumstances, income, pensions, savings, disability and care needs (formal and informal) of older people, the key determinants of their resources and needs.
Further information (PDF)
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Care Questions Study
The purpose of this study is to develop clear and robust questions for use in social surveys and economic evaluations about receipt of care and support services by older people; payment for social care for older people; receipt of unpaid, informal care by older people; and provision of unpaid, informal care.
Further information (study website)
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BUPA Analyses
The PSSRU Long-Term Care Finance team at LSE, led by Raphael Wittenberg, undertook analyses for BUPA looking at key elements in the future demand and supply of long-term care in England.
Recently completed projects
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Cognitive Impairment Study
The purpose of this project was to investigate future scenarios about the future prevalence and costs of cognitive impairment in older people.
Further information (PDF)
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Compression or Expansion of Disability? Scenarios for the Wanless Report
Further information (PDF)
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Disability in 2020: Population projections, policy trends and potential future scenarios
This project was concerned with projections on the possible 'state of affairs' concerning disabled people in the year 2020.
View Final Report (PDF)
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Future Demand for Social Care, 2005 to 2041: Projections of Demand for Social Care and Disability Benefits for Younger Adults in England
Future Demand for Social Care, 2005 To 2041: Projections of Demand for Social Care for Older People in England
The aim of the work has been to construct a simple model to make projections for younger disabled adults (aged 18 to 64) and to produce projections for older people and younger adults for England to 2041.
View Final Report (Projections of Demand for Social Care and Disability Benefits for Younger Adults in England) (PDF)
View Final Report (Projections of Demand for Social Care for Older People in England) (PDF)
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Local Projections of Long-term Care
This project estimated numbers of older people with different levels of dependency, estimated volumes of long-term care services demanded and estimated expenditure on long-term care services.
Further information (PDF)
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Long-term care projections for Wales
This study projected demand for a range of long-term care services for older people in Wales to 2020.
Further information (PDF)
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Paying for Long-term Care
This project was concerned with projecting expenditure on long term care services for older people under a wide range of options for reforming the current system.
View Research Summary (PDF)
View Final Report (PDF)
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Projected Financial Implications of the Wanless Report
This study prepared projections of the financial implications of the Wanless Review of Social Care.
View Final Report
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Work with ECOFIN (Economic and Financial Affairs Directorate General of the European Commission)
Further information (PDF)