Smith, Leonard A
Professor Leonard A Smith
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Experience keywords:
statistical analysis of large computer models; predictability; weather; construction of non-linear models of physical systems; climate; analysis of significance in statistical estimates
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For the last three years, Professor Smith has been developing, within CATS, a coherent framework for using imperfect models to better understand and predict real dynamical systems. This has involved working with operational weather models of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, the UK Met Office, the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction and the US Naval Research Laboratory's NOGAPS system. He is also involved in developing methods of experimental design for climate-like applications based within the framework of Indistinguishable States. He is currently working on the experimental design for the EU ENSEMBLES project and the analysis of data from the DEMETER project.
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Media experience:
Radio; TV
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The following references are sourced from LSE Research Online|. References that are linked lead to the full text.
Hagedorn, Renate and Smith, Leonard A. (2009) Communicating the value of probabilistic forecasts with Weather Roulette. Meteorological applications, 16 (2). pp. 143-155. ISSN 1350-4827 Bröcker, Jochen and Smith, Leonard A. (2008) From ensemble forecasts to predictive distribution functions. Tellus series A: dynamic meteorology and oceanography, 60 (4). pp. 663-678. ISSN 0280-6495 Judd, Kevin and Reynolds, Carolyn A. and Rosmond, Thomas E. and Smith, Leonard A. (2008) The geometry of model error. Journal of the atmospheric sciences, 65 (6). pp. 1749-1772. ISSN 0022-4928 Stainforth, D. A. and Allen, M. R. and Tredger, Edward and Smith, Leonard A. (2007) Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society A: mathematical, physical and engineering sciences, 365 (1857). pp. 2145-2161. ISSN 1364-503X Judd, Kevin and Smith, Leonard A. and Weisheimer, Antje (2007) How good is an ensemble at capturing truth? Using bounding boxes for forecast evaluation. Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 133 (626). pp. 1309-1325. ISSN 0035-9009 Bröcker, Jochen and Smith, Leonard A. (2007) Increasing the reliability of reliability diagrams. Weather and forecasting, 22 (3). pp. 651-661. ISSN 0882-8156 Bröcker, Jochen and Smith, Leonard A. (2007) Scoring probabilistic forecasts: the importance of being proper. Weather and forecasting, 22 (2). pp. 382-388. ISSN 0882-8156 Smith, Leonard A. (2007) Chaos: a very short introduction. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK. ISBN 0192853783 Roulston, Mark S and Ellepola, Jerome and von Hardenberg, Jost and Smith, Leonard A. (2005) Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models. Ocean engineering, 32 (14-15). pp. 1841-1863. ISSN 0029-8018 Guerrero, Alexandra and Smith, Leonard A. (2005) A maximum likelihood estimator for long-range persistence. Physica A: statistical mechanics and its applications, 355 (2-4). pp. 619-632. ISSN 0378-4371 Weisheimer, Antje and Smith, Leonard A. and Judd, Kevin (2005) A new view of forecast skill: bounding boxes from the DEMETER ensemble seasonal forecasts. Tellus series A: dynamic meteorology and oceanography, 57 (3). pp. 265-279. ISSN 0280-6495 Stainforth, D. A. and Aina, T. and Christensen, C. and Collins, M. and Faull, N. and Frame, D. J. and Kettleborough, J. A. and Knight, S. and Martin, A. and Murphy, J. M. and Piani, C. and Sexton, D. and Smith, Leonard A. and Spicer, R. A. and Thorpe, A. J. and Allen, M. R. (2005) Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature, 433 (7024). pp. 403-406. ISSN 0028-0836 Altalo, Mary G. and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) Using ensemble weather forecasts to manage utilities risk. Environmental finance, October 2004 (Supplement: Special report: Weather risk managment). pp. 48-49. ISSN 1468-8573 Judd, Kevin and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) Indistinguishable states II: the imperfect model scenario. Physica D: nonlinear phenomena, 196 (3-4). pp. 224-242. ISSN 0167-2789 Smith, Leonard A. and Hansen, James A. (2004) Extending the limits of ensemble forecast verification with the minimum spanning tree. Monthly weather review, 132 (6). pp. 1522-1528. ISSN 0027-0644 McSharry, Patrick E. and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) Consistent nonlinear dynamics: identifying model inadequacy. Physica D: nonlinear phenomena, 192 (1-2). pp. 1-22. ISSN 0167-2789 Golobic, I. and Pavlovic, E. and von Hardenberg, J. and Berry, M. and Nelson, R.A. and Kenning, D.B.R. and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) Comparison of a mechanistic model for nucleate boiling with experimental spatio-temporal data. Chemical engineering research and design, 82 (4). pp. 435-444. ISSN 0263-8762 Judd, Kevin and Smith, Leonard A. and Weisheimer, Antje (2004) Gradient free descent: shadowing, and state estimation using limited derivative informations. Physica D: nonlinear phenomena, 190 (3-4). pp. 153-166. ISSN 0167-2789 von Hardenberg, Jost and Kenning, David B. R. and Xing, Huijuan and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) Identification of nucleation site interactions. International journal of heat and fluid flow, 25 (2). pp. 298-304. ISSN 0142-727X Kwasniok, Frank and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) Real-time construction of optimized predictions from data streams. Physical review letters, 92 (16). pp. 116-120. ISSN 0031-9007 Roulston, M.S. and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) The boy who cried wolf revisited: the impact of false alarm intolerance on cost-loss scenarios. Weather and forecasting, 19 (2). pp. 391-397. ISSN 0882-8156 Guerrero, A. and Smith, Leonard A. (2003) Towards coherent estimation of the correlation dimension. Physics letters A, 318 (4-5). pp. 373-379. ISSN 0375-9601 Orrell, David and Smith, Leonard A. (2003) Visualising bifurcations in high dimensional systems: the spectral bifurcation diagram. International journal of bifurcation and chaos, 13 (10). pp. 3015-3027. ISSN 0218-1274 Roulston, M.S. and Kaplan, D.T. and Hardenberg, J. and Smith, Leonard A. (2003) Using medium-range weather forecasts to improve the value of wind energy production. Renewable energy, 28 (4). pp. 585-602. ISSN 0960-1481 McSharry, Patrick E. and Smith, Leonard A. and Tarassenko, Lionel (2003) Prediction of epileptic seizures: are nonlinear methods relevant? Nature medicine, 9 (3). pp. 241-242. ISSN 1078-8956 Roulston, M.S. and Smith, Leonard A. (2003) Combining dynamical and statistical ensembles. Tellus series A: dynamic meteorology and oceanography, 55 (1). pp. 16-30. ISSN 0280-6495 McSharry, P.E. and Smith, Leonard A. and Tarassenko, L. (2003) Comparison of predictability of epileptic seizures by a linear and a nonlinear method. IEEE transactions on biomedical engineering, 50 (5). pp. 628-633. ISSN 0018-9294 McSharry, P. E. and Clifford, G. D. and Tarassenko, L. and Smith, Leonard A. (2003) A dynamical model for generating synthetic electrocardiogram signals. IEEE transactions on biomedical engineering, 50 (3). pp. 289-294. ISSN 0018-9294 McSharry, Patrick E. and Clifford, G. D. and Tarassenko, L. and Smith, Leonard A. (2002) A method for generating an artificial RR tachogram of a typical healthy human over 24-hours. Computers in cardiology, 29 pp. 225-228. ISSN 0276-6574 McSharry, P. E. and He, T. and Smith, Leonard A. and Tarassenko, L. (2002) Linear and non-linear methods for automatic seizure detection in scalp electro-encephalogram recordings. Medical & biological engineering & computing, 40 (4). pp. 447-461. ISSN 0140-0118 Roulston, Mark S. and Smith, Leonard A. (2002) Evaluating probabilistic forecasts using information theory. Monthly weather review, 130 (6). pp. 1653-1660. ISSN 0027-0644 Smith, Leonard A. (2002) What might we learn from climate forecasts? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 99 (Suppl. 1). pp. 2487-2492. ISSN 0027-8424 McSharry, Patrick E. and Ellepola, Jerome H. and von Hardenberg, Jost and Smith, Leonard A. and Kenning, David B. R. and Judd, Kevin (2002) Spatio-temporal analysis of nucleate pool boiling: identification of nucleation sites using non-orthogonal empirical functions. International journal of heat and mass transfer, 45 (2). pp. 237-253. ISSN 0017-9310 Smith, Leonard A. and Roulston, Mark S. (2002) Weather and seasonal forecasting. In: Dischel, Robert, (ed.) Climate risk and the weather market. Risk Books, London, pp. 115-126. ISBN 9781899332526 Smith, Leonard A. (2002) Predictability and chaos. In: Holton, James R. and Pyle, John and Curry, Judith A., (eds.) Encyclopedia of atmospheric sciences. Academic Press, Amsterdam, London, pp. 1777-1785. ISBN 9780122270901 McSharry, Patrick E. and Smith, Leonard A. (2002) Consistent nonlinear dynamics: identifying model inadequacy. Physica D: nonlinear phenomena, 192 (1-2). pp. 1-22. ISSN 0167-2789 Gilmour, Isla and Smith, Leonard A. and Buizza, Roberto (2001) Linear regime duration: is 24 hours a long time in synoptic weather forecasting? Journal of the atmospheric sciences, 58 (22). pp. 3525-3539. ISSN 0022-4928 Hansen, James A. and Smith, Leonard A. (2001) Probabilistic noise reduction. Tellus series A: dynamic meteorology and oceanography, 53 (5). pp. 585-598. ISSN 0280-6495 Judd, Kevin and Smith, Leonard A. (2001) Indistinguishable states I: perfect model scenario. Physica D: nonlinear phenomena, 151 (2-4). pp. 125-141. ISSN 0167-2789 Smith, Leonard A. and Roulston, Mark S and von Hardenberg, Jost (2001) End to end ensemble forecasting: towards evaluating the economic value of an ensemble prediction system. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK Orrell, D. and Smith, Leonard A. and Barkmeijer, J. and Palmer, T. N. (2001) Model error in weather forecasting. Nonlinear processes in geophysics, 8 (6). pp. 357-371. ISSN 1023-5809 Smith, Leonard A. (2001) Disentangling uncertainty and error: on the predictability of nonlinear systems. In: Mees, Alistair I., (ed.) Nonlinear dynamics and statistics. Birkhauser, Boston, pp. 31-64. ISBN 9780817641634 Roulston, Mark S and Ziehmann, Christine and Smith, Leonard A. (2001) A forecast reliability index from ensembles: a comparison of methods. London School of Economics and Political Science, London Hansen, James A. and Smith, Leonard A. (2000) The role of operational constraints in selecting supplementary observations. Journal of the atmospheric sciences, 57 (17). pp. 2859-2871. ISSN 0022-4928 Ziehmann, Christine and Smith, Leonard A. and Kurths, Jürgen (2000) Localized Lyapunov exponents and the prediction of predictability. Physics letters A, 271 (4). pp. 237-251. ISSN 0375-9601 McSharry, Patrick E. and Smith, Leonard A. (1999) Better nonlinear models from noisy data: attractors with maximum likelihood. Physical review letters, 83 (21). pp. 4285-4288. ISSN 0031-9007 Smith, Leonard A. and Ziehmann, C. and Fraedrich, K. (1999) Uncertainty dynamics and predictability in chaotic systems. Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 125 (560). pp. 2855-2886. ISSN 0035-9009 Ziehmann, Christine and Smith, Leonard A. and Kurths, Jürgen (1999) The bootstrap and Lyapunov exponents in deterministic chaos. Physica D: nonlinear phenomena, 126 (1-2). pp. 49-59. ISSN 0167-2789 Moroz, Irene M. and Smith, Leonard A. and Hide, Raymond (1998) Synchronized chaos in coupled double disk homopolar dynamos. International journal of bifurcation and chaos, 8 (11). pp. 2125-2133. ISSN 0218-1274 Paparella, F. and Provenzale, A. and Smith, Leonard A. and Taricco, C. and Vio, R. (1997) Local random analogue prediction of nonlinear processes. Physics letters A, 235 (3). pp. 233-240. ISSN 0375-9601 Allen, Myles R. and Smith, Leonard A. (1997) Optimal filtering in singular spectrum analysis. Physics letters A, 234 (6). pp. 419-428. ISSN 0375-9601 Allen, Myles R. and Smith, Leonard A. (1996) Monte Carlo SSA: detecting irregular oscillations in the presence of colored noise. Journal of climate, 9 (12). pp. 3373-3404. ISSN 0894-8755 Theiler, James and Smith, Leonard A. (1995) Anomalous convergence of Lyapunov exponent estimates. Physical review E, 51 (4). pp. 3738-3741. ISSN 1539-3755 Smith, Leonard A. (1995) A personal overview of nonlinear time-series analysis from a chaos perspective - comments. Scandinavian journal of statistics, 22 (4). pp. 435-437. ISSN 0303-6898 Smith, Leonard A. (1994) Turbulence in the River Severn: a dynamic systems approach. In: Beven, Keith J. and Chatwin, Phillip C. and Millbank, John H., (eds.) Mixing and transport in the environment : a memorial volume for Catherine M. Allen (1954-1991). J. Wiley, Chichester, UK, pp. 383-399. ISBN 9780471941422 Smith, Leonard A. (1994) Local optimal prediction: exploiting strangeness and the variation of sensitivity to initial condition. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society A: mathematical, physical and engineering sciences, 348 (1688). pp. 371-381. ISSN 1364-503X Allen, Myles R. and Smith, Leonard A. (1994) Investigating the origins and significance of low-frequency modes of climate variability. Geophysical research letters, 21 (10). pp. 883-886. ISSN 0094-8276 Allen, Myles R. and Read, Peter L. and Smith, Leonard A. (1992) Temperature oscillations. Nature, 359 (6397). ISSN 0028-0836 Smith, Leonard A. (1992) Identification and prediction of low dimensional dynamics. Physica D: nonlinear phenomena, 58 (1-4). pp. 50-76. ISSN 0167-2789 Provenzale, A. and Smith, Leonard A. and Vio, R. and Murante, G. (1992) Distinguishing between low-dimensional dynamics and randomness in measured time series. Physica D: nonlinear phenomena, 58 (1-4). pp. 31-49. ISSN 0167-2789 Allen, Myles R. and Read, Peter L. and Smith, Leonard A. (1992) Temperature time-series? Nature, 355 (6362). ISSN 0028-0836 Smith, Leonard A. (1992) Comments on the paper of R Smith, estimating dimension in noisy chaotic time series. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: series B (statistical methodology), 54 (2). pp. 329-352. ISSN 1369-7412 Smith, Leonard A. and Godfrey, K. and Fox, P. and Warwick, K. (1991) A new technique for fault detection in multi-sensor probes. In: International Conference on Control '91, 25-28 March 1991. The Institution, London, UK, pp. 1062-1067. ISBN 9780852965092 Smith, Leonard A. (1988) Intrinsic limits on dimension calculations. Physics letters A, 133 (6). pp. 283-288. ISSN 0375-9601 Smith, Leonard A. and Spiegel, E. A. (1987) Strange accumulators. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 497 (Chaotic phenomena in astrophysics). pp. 61-65. ISSN 0077-8923 Smith, Leonard A. and Fournier, J. D. and Spiegel, E. A. (1986) Lacunarity and intermittency in fluid turbulence. Physics letters A, 114 (8-9). pp. 465-468. ISSN 0375-9601 Smith, Leonard A. and Spiegel, E. A. (1985) Pattern formation by particles settling in viscous flows. Lecture notes in physics, 230 pp. 306-318. ISSN 1616-6361 Green, A. E. S. and Cross, K. R. and Smith, Leonard A. (1980) Improved analytic characterization of ultraviolet skylight. Photochemistry and Photobiology, 31 (1). pp. 59-65. ISSN 0031-8655
LSE Research Online is the primary resource for references to publications. For queries or updates please email the LSE Research Online team at lseresearchonline@lse.ac.uk|.
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