Publications

Selected publications by DSI Affiliates and staff 

• Milena Tsvetkova, Taha Yasseri, Niccolo Pescetelli & Tobias Werner(2024). A new sociology of humans and machines. Nature Human Behaviour volume 8, pages1864–1876.
  
  Abstract
  From fake social media accounts and generative artificial intelligence chatbots to trading algorithms and self-driving vehicles, robots, bots and algorithms are proliferating and permeating our communication channels, social interactions, economic transactions and transportation arteries. Networks of multiple interdependent and interacting humans and intelligent machines constitute complex social systems for which the collective outcomes cannot be deduced from either human or machine behaviour alone. Under this paradigm, we review recent research and identify general dynamics and patterns in situations of competition, coordination, cooperation, contagion and collective decision-making, with context-rich examples from high-frequency trading markets, a social media platform, an open collaboration community and a discussion forum. To ensure more robust and resilient human–machine communities, we require a new sociology of humans and machines. Researchers should study these communities using complex system methods; engineers should explicitly design artificial intelligence for human–machine and machine–machine interactions; and regulators should govern the ecological diversity and social co-development of humans and machines.

• Aurélien Saussay, Misato Sato (2024). The impact of energy prices on industrial investment location: Evidence from global firm level data. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Volume 127, ISSN 0095-0696.
  
  Abstract
  This study examines the influence of relative energy prices on the geographical distribution of industrial investments across 41 countries. Employing a gravity model framework to analyse firms’ investment location decisions, we estimate the model using global bilateral investment flows derived from firm-level M&A data. Our findings reveal that a 10% increase in the energy price differential between two countries results in a 3.2% rise in cross-border acquisitions. This effect is most pronounced in energy-intensive industries and transactions targeting emerging economies. Furthermore, policy simulations suggest that the impact of unilateral carbon pricing on cross-border investments is modest.

• Dickson, Z. P., & Hobolt, S. B. (2024). Going Against the Grain: Climate Change as a Wedge Issue for the Radical Right.Comparative Political Studies, 0(0). 
  
  Abstract
  Political parties often mobilise issues that can improve their electoral fortunes by splitting existing coalitions. We argue that by adopting a distinctively adversarial stance, radical right-wing parties have increasingly politicised climate change policies as a wedge issue. This strategy challenges the mainstream party consensus and seeks to mobilise voter concerns over green initiatives. Relying on state-of-the-art multilingual large language models, we empirically examine nearly half a million press releases from 76 political parties across nine European democracies to support this argument. Our findings demonstrate that the radical right’s oppositional climate policy rhetoric diverges significantly from the mainstream consensus. Survey data further reveal climate policy scepticism among voters across the political spectrum, highlighting the mobilising potential of climate policies as a wedge issue. This research advances our understanding of issue competition and the politicisation of climate change.

• Dickson, Z. P., & Yildirim, T. M. (2024). The Effects of COVID-19 Infection on Opposition to COVID-19 Policies: Evidence from the U.S. Congress. Political Communication, 1–24. 
  
  Abstract
  Elites’ skepticism of scientific consensus presents a formidable challenge in addressing critical issues like climate change and global pandemics. While extensive research has explored the capacity of events related to these challenges to act as “exogenous shocks,” motivating the general public to reassess their risk perceptions, our understanding of how elites similarly respond to such shocks remains limited. In this article, we investigate whether COVID-19 infections influenced US lawmakers’ support for COVID-19 containment measures, focusing on expressed opposition to COVID-19 policies on social media and in press releases throughout the first two years of the pandemic. Employing a staggered difference-in-differences design and matrix completion methods, our analysis reveals that COVID-19 infections caused a reduction of approximately 30% in legislators’ expressions of opposition to COVID-19 policies on social media. These findings underscore that elites are indeed responsive to policy shocks – even in highly polarized contexts – when they are personally affected by an issue.