Books

“The European Central Bank Between the Financial Crisis and Populisms” (2020) [Book] with M. Monti, C. Wiesner and S. Diessner, Palgrave McMillan, September.

Peer-reviewed

“Greece 2010-18: What could have we done differently” (2022) with C. Lenoel and G. Young, Open Economies Review, accepted

“Unemployment and Growth before and after the Global Financial Crisis: New evidence from structural Okun estimates” (2022) with Nauro F. Campos and F. Mitropoulos [LEQS Discussion Paper], LSE Europe in Question Discussion Paper, No 175/2022

“Serendipity or a missed chance? On the interaction between vaccine distribution and the EU Recovery Funds” (2021) [Article] with R. Giacon, The Economists’ Voice, 18(1)

“The Dynamics of Core and Periphery in the European Monetary Union: A New Approach” (2021) [Article] [previous version: LEQS Discussion Paper] with N. Campos, Journal of International Money and Finance, 112(1)

“The United Kingdom and the Stability of the Euro Area: From Maastricht to Brexit” (2020) [Article] [Previous: European Parliament MP-D Paper] with N. Campos, The World Economy, 43(7), pp.  1792-1808

“Towards an understanding of credit cycles: do all credit booms cause crises?” (2019) [Article] [RCEA Working Paper] [LSE Systemic Risk Paper] with R. Barrell and D. Karim, The European Journal of Finance, SI, 26(10), pp 978-993.

“Transition dynamics in European labour markets during crisis and recovery” (2019) [Article] [LSE eprints] with V. Monastiriotis and N. Lampropoulou, Comparative Economic Studies, 61(2), pp 213–234.

”Fundamentals versus market sentiments in the euro bond markets: Implications for QE” (2017) [European Parliament MP-D Paper] [LSE Systemic Risk Paper] with P. De Grauwe and Y. Ji, LSE Systemic Risk Special Paper, 12-2017

“Brexit and the Future of the Eurozone” (2017) [Article] with N. Campos, International Corporate Review, 14(6), 458-459

“European banking union” (2016) [Article] [LSE eprints] The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. Online Edition. Eds. Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume. Palgrave Macmillan

“Core and Periphery in the European Monetary Union: Bayoumi-Eichengreen 25 Years Later” (2016) [Article] [LEQS Discussion Paper] with N. Campos, Economics Letters, 147(1), 127-130 

”The Impact of Income and Health on the Economic Decision to Retire (Early) ” (2016) [Brunel University Working Paper] [Previous version(s): ECB Working Paper, LEQS Discussion Paper] with T. Aranki, Brunel University Economics and Finance Working Paper Working Paper No. 16-17, October.

“Animal spirits and credit cycles” (2015) [Article] [CESIfo Working Paper] with P. De Grauwe, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 59(1), 95-117

”Interaction between monetary policy and bank regulation: Theory and European practice” (2015) [European Parliament MP-D Paper] [LSE Systemic Risk Paper] with E. Gerba, LSE Systemic Risk Centre Special Papers, no. 10

“Differently unequal: zooming-in on the distributional consequences of the crisis in euro area countries” (2015) [Article] [LEQS Discussion Paper] with M. D’Errico and R. Serafini, Economic Modelling, SI, 48(1), 93–115  

“Transitions in labour market status in EU labour markets” (2014) [Article] [IZA DIscussion Paper] [LEQS Discussion Paper] with M. Ward-Warmedinger, IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, 3(17), 1-25

“Bond Market Co-Movements, Expected Inflation and the GBP-USD Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate” (2014) [Article] [ECB Working Paper] The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 54(2), 242–256

“On the Join Test of the Uncovered Interest Parity and the Ex-Ante Purchasing Power Parity” (2013) [Article] [Previous: ECB Working Paper] Review of International Economics, 21(3), 519-535

“Similar GDP-Inflation Cycles. An Application to CEE Countries and the Euro Area” (2013) [Article] [ECB Working Paper] ECB Working Paper, no. 1552

“Estimating Poland’s Potential Output: A Production Function Approach”(2010) [IMF Working Paper] with N. Epstein, IMF Working Paper Series, no. 10/15

Work in progress

“Bremia: A study of the impact of Brexit and COVID-19 based on bond prices” (Aug 2020), with J. S. Chadha, A. Hantzsche, C. Lenoel and S. Mellina 

"Covid-19: Industry Level Origins of Changes in Economic Welfare" (May 2020), with H. S. Bhamra (Imperial College) and K. Whyte (NIESR)

“Financial frictions and housing collateral constraints in a macro model with heuristics” (Sept 2018), with P. De Grauwe (LSE)

Structural ex-ante vs ex-post potential output” (June 2019), with G. Niccolo' (Federal Reserve Board) and A. Terzi (European Commission) 

“The prospect of regional monetary integration in East Asia: new evidence” (Oct 2016), with B. Keddad (Paris Business School)

“Market reputation and the perception of European banks during the crisis” (Apr 2016), with G.M. Caporale and N. Spagnolo (Brunel University London)

“Reconsidering the Uncovered Interest Parity” (Oct 2016), with F. C. Bagliano (University of Turin) and C. A. Favero (Bocconi University)

“The oil price-climate-macroeconomy relationship in the UK: A historical perspective” (Apr 2013), with C. Morana (University of Milan-Bicocca)

Policy reports

"Investing in Fixed Income, Europe 2022", (2022), [Investing in Fixed Income Report] with A. Kelshiker, J. Jessop, G. Moec, M. Leppälä, R. Stow, A. Gill, C. Fleury, J. Mawby, C. Milton-Edwards, K. Cummins, M. Connell, D. Silcock and D. Carlin, ClearPath Analysis, 14 February

“The European Commission’s ex-post evaluation of the economic adjustment programmes of Greece 2010-2018” (2021) C. Alcidi and F. Corti, with contributions from T. Broich, A. Georgosouli, C. Lenoel, C. Macchiarelli, F. Shamsfakhr, A. Vigkos, and K. Whyte, forthcoming

“Sovereign debt sustainability in Greece during the economic adjustment programmes: 2010-2018” (2020) [European Commission Report] with G. Young and C. Leonel, Report, DG-ECFIN, European Commission

“Transitions in the EU labour market: Structure, crisis and recovery” (2019) [European Commission Social Situation Monitor] with V. Monastiriotis and N. Lampropoulou, Report - DG-EMPL, European Commission

“European economic governance and cohesion policy” (2014) [European Parliament Report] with I. Begg, J. Bachtler, C. Mendez, F. Wishlade, Report - Committee on Regional Development, European Parliament, IP/B/REGI/IC/2013-086, Jan

Policy papers

Harvard Growth Lab

"What Economic Complexity Theory Can Tell Us about the EU’s Pandemic Recovery and Resilience Plans" (2021) [Harvard Growth Lab] with R. Hausmann, M. A. Santos and R. Giacon, Growth Lab / European Politics and Policy.

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

"Global Economic Outlook - Lifting the Pandemic Cloud" (2021) [National Institute Economic Review (Global Economic Outlook)] with B. Naisbitt; J. Boshoff, D. Holland, I. Hurst, H. Küçük, I. Liadze, I, X. Mao, P. Sánchez Juanino, C. Thamotheram, K. Whyte, National Institute Economic Review, 257, Summer

"Simulating the effect of the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility in NiGEM” (2021) [National Institute Economic Review (Global Economic Outlook)] (Topical Feature I), with I. Liadze, National Institute Economic Review, 257

NIESR Term Premium Tracker (2021) [NIESR Quarterly Term Premium Tracker], No. 1, June

“Global Economic Outlook - Our Vaccine Debt” (2021) [National Institute Economic Review (Global Economic Outlook)] with B. Naisbitt; J. Boshoff, D. Holland, I. Hurst, H. Küçük, I. Liadze, I, X. Mao, P. Sánchez Juanino, C. Thamotheram, K. Whyte, National Institute Economic Review, 256, Spring

"Financial Spillovers of the American Rescue Plan on Emerging Markets” (2021) [National Institute Economic Review (Global Economic Outlook)] (Topical Feature II), with D. Holland, X. Mao, National Institute Economic Review, 255

“Global Economic Outlook - The World in its Grip: Covid-19” (2021) [National Institute Economic Review (Global Economic Outlook)] with B. Naisbitt; J. Boshoff, D. Holland, I. Hurst, H. Küçük, I. Liadze, I, X. Mao, P. Sánchez Juanino, C. Thamotheram, K. Whyte, National Institute Economic Review, 255, Feb

"Trade and the unequal race to the Covid-19 vaccine” (2021) [National Institute Economic Review (Global Economic Outlook)] (Topical Feature I), with D. Holland, X. Mao, National Institute Economic Review, 255

“Prospects for the World Economy” (2020) [National Institute Economic Review (The World Economy)] with B. Naisbitt; J. Boshoff, D. Holland, I. Hurst, H. Küçük, I. Liadze, I, X. Mao, P. Sánchez Juanino, C. Thamotheram, K. Whyte, National Institute Economic Review, 254, Cambridge University Press, Nov

“Government bond term premia during the pandemic” (2020) [National Institute Economic Review (The World Economy)] (Box B), National Institute Economic Review, 254, Cambridge University Press, February, pp. F64–66

“Prospects for the World Economy” (2020) [National Institute Economic Review (The World Economy)] with B. Naisbitt; J. Boshoff, D. Holland, I. Hurst, A. Kara, I. Liadze, I, X. Mao, P. Sánchez Juanino, C. Thamotheram, K. Whyte, National Institute Economic Review, 253, Cambridge University Press, Aug

“Prospects for the World Economy” (2020) [National Institute Economic Review (The World Economy)] with B. Naisbitt; J. Boshoff, D. Holland, I. Hurst, A. Kara, I. Liadze, I, X. Mao, P. Sánchez Juanino, C. Thamotheram, K. Whyte, National Institute Economic Review, 252, Cambridge University Press, May

“Are the Euro Area and the US en route to Japanisation?” (2020) [National Institute Economic Review (The World Economy)] with C. Lenoël and B. Naisbitt (Box C), National Institute Economic Review, 251, February, pp. F52–57

European Parliament / Monetary Policy Dialogue

“The EURO and the geopolitics of post-COVID19” (2020) [European Parliament MP-D Paper] in «International Role of the Euro: A Monetary Policy View» (Compilation of Notes), Monetary Policy Dialogue, European Parliament, PE 652.705 - May

“Communication During Unconventional Times: The ECB’s Approach” (2020) [European Parliament MP-D Paper] with  E. Gerba, Monetary Policy Dialogue, European Parliament, PE 642.369 - January

“The euro’s unfinished business: Challenges ahead for EMU monetary and fiscal policy architecture” (2019) [European Parliament MP-D Paper] with  E. Gerba and S. Diessner, Monetary Policy Dialogue, European Parliament, PE 638.423 - September

“Post-crisis Excess Liquidity and Bank Lending” (2018) [European Parliament MP-D Paper], Monetary Policy Dialogue, European Parliament, PE 626.066 - September 

“The ECB Collateral Policy Beyond Conventional Monetary Stimulus” (2018) [European Parliament MP-D Paper] with M. Monti, Monetary Policy Dialogue, European Parliament, PE 619.017 - July 

“The euro-area denominated payment systems and the conduct of monetary policy: Some considerations ahead of Brexit” (2018) [European Parliament MP-D Paper] with M. Monti, Monetary Policy Dialogue, European Parliament, IP/A/ECON/2018-01, January

“TARGET (im)balances at record level: Should we worry?” (2017) [European Parliament MP-D Paper] with P. De Grauwe and Y. Ji, Monetary Policy Dialogue, European Parliament, IP/A/ECON/2017-04, November

“The corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP): Effectiveness and challenges ahead” (2017) [European Parliament MP-D Paper] with M. Monti and A. Vedolin, Monetary Policy Dialogue, European Parliament, IP/A/ECON/2017-03, September

“Fundamentals versus market sentiments in the euro bond markets: Implications for QE” (2017) [European Parliament MP-D Paper] [LSE Systemic Risk Paper] with P. De Grauwe and Y. Ji, LSE Systemic Risk Special Paper, 12-2017

“The Impact of Brexit on the Stability of the Euro Area” (2016) [European Parliament MP-D Paper] with N. Campos, Monetary Policy Dialogue, European Parliament, IP/A/ECON/2016-04, Nov

“The current state of financial (dis)integration in the euro area” (2016) [European Parliament MP-D Paper] with P. Koutroumpis, Monetary Policy Dialogue, European Parliament, P/A/ECON/2016-03, Sept 

“Assessing ECB Quantitative Easing: One Year On” (2016) [European Parliament MP-D Paper] with E. Gerba, Monetary Policy Dialogue, European Parliament, IP/A/ECON/2016-02, June

“Policy options and risks of an extension of the ECB’s quantitative easing programme: An analysis” (2016) [European Parliament MP-D Paper] with E. Gerba, Monetary Policy Dialogue, European Parliament, IP/A/ECON/2016-01, Feb

“Is globalization reducing the ability of central banks to control inflation?” (2015) [European Parliament MP-D Paper] with E. Gerba, Monetary Policy Dialogue, European Parliament, IP/A/ECON/2015-07, Nov

“Interaction between monetary policy and bank regulation: Theory and European practice” (2015) [European Parliament MP-D Paper] [LSE Systemic Risk Paper] with E. Gerba, LSE Systemic Risk Centre Special Papers, no. 10

”Sovereign Bond Purchases and Risk Sharing: Myth and Reality of the European QE” (2015) [European Parliament MP-D Paper] with E. Gerba, Monetary Policy Dialogue, European Parliament, IP/A/ECON/2015-02, June

”Financial (in)stability low interest rates and (un)conventional monetary policy” (2015) [European Parliament MP-D Paper] with E. Gerba, Monetary Policy Dialogue, European Parliament, IP/A/ECON/2015-01, Mar

The Economic Observatory

“How is Covid-19 affecting international travel and tourism?” (2021) [The Economic Observatory], The Economics Observatory (ECO), 22 April

“Monetary financing’: is it happening and what are the dangers?” (2020) [The Economic Observatory] with Michael McMahon, The Economics Observatory (ECO), 27 May

“Quantitative easing and monetary financing: what’s the difference?” (2020) [The Economic Observatory] with Michael McMahon, The Economics Observatory (ECO), 27 May

Oxford Analytica

“Banking union gaps leave European ‘doom loop’ intact” (2014) [Oxford Analytica] Oxford Analytica Daily Brief, 3 Sept

European Central Bank

“Labour market mobility in the CEE EU Member States, compared with that of the euro area, Denmark and Sweden” (2011) [ECB Monthly Bulletin] with M. Ward-Warmedinger, in Monthly Bulletin, European Central Bank, Frankfurt, December

“Labour market mobility and transitions in labour market status in the euro area” (2011) [ECB Monthly Bulletin] with M. Ward-Warmedinger, in Monthly Bulletin, European Central Bank, Frankfurt, March

 Contributions to edited volumes

“Transitions in the EU labour market before and after the crisis: The role of reforms” [Book Chapter] (2020) with V. Monastiriotis and N. Lampropoulou in «Structural Reforms and Economic Growth in Europe», Nauro Campos, Paul De Grauwe and Yuemei Ji (Eds.), Cambridge University Press

“European Monetary Integration and the EU-UK relationship” (2017) [Book Chapter] [LSE eprint] in «The Economics of the UK-EU Relationship: From the Treaty of Rome to the Vote for Brexit» by N. Campos and F. Coricelli (Eds.), Palgrave Macmillan

Op-eds

“The Ukraine war intensifies the dilemma facing monetary policymakers by simultaneously harming growth and exacerbating already high inflation” (2022)  [LSE British Politics and Policy]  [Brave New Europe] LSE British Politics and Policy, 28 Mar

“A Hamilton Moment for Europe? Demystifying the Next Generation EU and the EU Recovery Funds” (2022)  [LSE EUROPP]  [Harvard Growth Lab] ,  EUROPP - European Politics and Policy, with Renato Giacon, 25 Mar

"The US may be stuck with higher inflation in 2022, and potentially beyond" (2021) [LSE USAPP] [NIESR Blog] with Patricia Sanchez-Juanino and Barry Naisbitt, LSE American Politics and Policy, LSE Phelan Centre, 24 Nov

“What economic complexity theory can tell us about the EU’s pandemic recovery and resilience plans” (2021) [LSE EUROPP], EUROPP - European Politics and Policy, with Ricardo Hausmann, Miguel Angel Santos and Renato Giacon, 30 Aug

"The COVID-19 vaccine and International Travel" [Finance Unlocked], Finance Unlocked – Essentials, 8 July 2021

“The EU’s recovery funds should be released when Europe’s economies can reopen” (2021) [LSE EUROPP] [NIESR Blog] [Il Sole 24 ore], EUROPP - European Politics and Policy, with Renato Giacon, 18 May

"Why Forecast? A Policymakers' Guide During Uncertain Times” (2021) [Webinar] Civil Service College, 5 Jan

“Government bond term premia during the pandemic” (2020) [National Institute Economic Review Preview] [LSE COVID-19] National Institute Economic Review Preview, 27 October

"The impact of Brexit on bond prices" (2020) [UKiCE blog] [NIESR Blog], UK in a Changing Europe, with S. Mellina, 9 October

“Is it all quiet on the inflation front, still?” (2020)  [LSE COVID-19] [NIESR Blog],  COVID-19 LSE Blog, School of Public Policy, with  C. Lenoël, 16 Sep.

“Once the dust settles, supporting emerging economies will be the challenge” (2020) [LSE COVID-19] COVID-19 LSE Blog, School of Public Policy, with A. Kara and R. Giacon, 11 May.

“Now it is the turn of leaders to do ‘whatever it takes’ to save Europe” (2020) [Encompass Europe] [LSE EUROPP] Encompass Online, with S. Diessner and E. Jones, 23 April

“Labour markets and optimum currency areas: Lessons for the euro area from China and the US” (2019) [LSE EUROPP]  EUROPP - European Politics and Policy, with Fotis Mitropoulos, 21 October 

“Labour market mobility in the EU before and after the crisis” (2019) [LSE Business Review] LSE Business Review, with V. Monastiriotis and Nikolitsa Lampropoulou, 14 October

“Is politics becoming one of the ECB’s biggest problems?” (2019), [LSE EUROPP] EUROPP - European Politics and Policy, with  M. Monti, 11 June 

“Why non-performing loans are still putting the European Banking Union at risk” (2019), [LSE EUROPP] [LSE Business Review] [Il Sole 24 ore] EUROPP - European Politics and Policy, with  R. Giacon, A. Georgosouli and M. Monti, 27 March 

“Europe Beyond Brexit: what’s next?”  (2018) [LSE Brexit] [LSE EUROPP] with R. Dunin-Wąsowicz, LSE Brexit, 19 December 

“Tackling the free rider problem in the EMU does not have to be a zero-sum game: Italy’s budget deficit case “  (2018) [LSE EUROPP] [Il Sole 24 ore], EUROPP - European Politics and Policy, 19 November 

“The EMU quest for integration: What does the ECB’s collateral data tell us?” (2018) [LSE EUROPP] with M. Monti, EUROPP - European Politics and Policy, 17 July

“A history of the European core and its periphery: How an optimal currency area forms” (2018) [VoxEU.org] with N. Campos, VoxEU.org, 12 March

”Brexit threatens City’s future in European payment systems” [LSE EUROPP] [LSE Brexit] (2018) with M. Monti, EUROPP - European Politics and Policy, 26 February

”Assessing the impact of the ECB’s Corporate Sector Purchase Programme on SMEs” (2017) [LSE EUROPP] with M. Monti and A. Vedolin, EUROPP - European Politics and Policy, 27 September

“How the Eurozone’s core versus periphery pattern evolved over time” (2016) [LSE Business Review] with N. Campos, LSE Business Review, 14 Dec

”A new measure of  economic asymmetries in the Eurozone” (2016) [VoxEU.org] [World Economic Forum] with N. Campos, VoxEU.org, 19 October

”The Economics of the UK-EU Relationship” (2016) [VoxEU.org] Video contribution to “Fear of Brexiting: Recent perspectives on the economics of the UK-EU relationship” by N. Campos, F. Coricelli, VoxEU.org, 14 June

“Quantitative easing: to deal with the root of the problem, the ECB should rather tackle non-performing loans” (2016) [LSE Business Review] with E. Gerba, LSE Business Review, 10 March

“Brexit, ‘euro-ins’, and ‘euro-outs” (2016) [VoxEU.org] [LSE EUROPP] with N. Campos, VoxEU.org, 03 March