This webinar will be the launch of Alexander Hamilton's latest report 'Is Demography Destiny? The Economic Implications of Iraq's Demography' published under the LSE Conflict Research Programme–Iraq.
In this report, Hamilton examines the fiscal and economic implications of Iraq’s current demographic trajectory and finds that, given Iraq’s almost total dependence on oil for government revenues, slight changes in the demographic transition rate could result in significant cumulative per capita expenditure changes – equivalent to $2.9bn. This paper combines the data on Iraq’s demography with projections on economic growth and oil revenues to examine how variations in demographic transition might affect public finances and hence the viability of the current social contract and offers recommendations for policy-makers.
Download the paper here.
Alexander Hamilton is an economic adviser for the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) based in Baghdad, where he leads the FCDO’s economic reform programme in Iraq. He completed his PhD in Political Economy at the University of Oxford and has previously worked for the World Bank. His area of expertise is the economics of fragile states. Specifically, he focuses on the application of political economy tools to better understand and support economic reforms in resource-rich, fragile state contexts.
Toby Dodge is a Professor in the Department of International Relations, where he is Deputy Head of the Department (PhD and Research). He is also Kuwait Professor and Director of the Kuwait Programme, Middle East Centre. Toby currently serves as Iraq Research Director for the DFID-funded Conflict Research Programme (CRP). From 2013–18, Toby was Director of the Middle East Centre. Toby's research concentrates on the evolution of the post-colonial state in the international system. The main focus of this work on the developing world is the state in the Middle East, specifically Iraq.
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